In this episode, we bring together a remarkable team of historians, physicists and archaeologists who are working on a groundbreaking project at Durham University. By combining archival research, archaeological evidence, and advanced computer simulation techniques they have created the JUNE model to simulate how the Black Death swept through medieval England. This free-flowing conversation explores the challenges of interpreting historical records, the contrasting research cultures of science and the humanities, and the transformative outcomes of their interdisciplinary work.
Overview:
The Black Death of 1348–9 stands “unchallenged as the greatest disaster in documented human history,” yet the characteristics of the disease that killed approximately half the population of Europe in just a handful of years have long confounded academics. Although largely thought to be caused by Yersinia pestis, it is still unclear how the disease spread so quickly in a preindustrial society.
The project uses the latest computer modelling, originally developed in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, to simulate the spread of the Black Death in England. The JUNE model applies modern census data about the population and a range of information about daily life – such as work patterns, travel, and social activities – to simulate the spread of disease. This is how traditional disease modelling works: with sufficient information about a population and their behaviour, alongside information about the characteristics of a disease, it is possible to project potential future outcomes and put mitigation policies in place to limit the spread.
This project inverts that logic by using the best knowledge of late medieval society to project plausible pathological pasts and determine the most likely way the disease spread. Drawing on historical and archaeological sources, the model reconstructs the broad characteristics of the late medieval population on the eve of the Black Death, such as location, age, sex, and occupation. This forms the “static” part of the model. From there, the team infers “dynamic” behavioural patterns, such as where people spent their time and whom they encountered in their daily lives.
The primary objectives are to establish how the Black Death spread, the likely means of its transmission, and what this reveals about social connections in medieval society. The model can test for multiple modes of transmission: one direct, through human-to-human contact, where either infected fleas from carriers are transferred to uninfected people, or where close contact allows transmission through coughing; and one indirect, where infected fleas remain at a place and establish a “disease reservoir.”
Through this work, the project aims to shed new light on the disease itself and the extent to which it was spread by human interactions, as well as on the social connectivity of late medieval society by identifying how people likely interacted with one another during one of the worst pandemics in global history.
To find out more about the project please visit: https://modellingtheblackdeath.wordpress.com
Participants in the conversation:
Dr Alex Brown, Associate Professor of Medieval History, Durham University
Dr Grace Owen, Postdoctoral Research Associate, History, Durham University
Barney Sloane FSA, Independent Researcher, Oxfordshire
Prof Frank Krauss, Professor for Particle Theory, Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, Durham University
Professor Ifan Hughes, Head of the Quantum Light and Matter research group, Physics, Durham University
Callum M. Brown. MPhys, Research Assistant for the Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, Durham University
Dr Martha Correa-Delval, Research Software Engineer, Durham University